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The numbers: Sales at retailers dropped 1% in March and declined for the fourth time in the past five months, reflecting a slowdown in the U.S. economy and a shift in consumer-spending habits.
Retail sales are a big part of consumer spending and offer clues about the strength of the economy. Sales had been forecast to drop 0.4%, based on a Wall Street Journal poll of economists.
Receipts shrank a smaller 0.3% if auto dealers and gas stations are excluded. Car and gasoline purchases exaggerate overall retail spending.
Key details: Sales in March posted the biggest decline in four months, largely because of lower auto and gasoline sales.
A late Easter might have also shifted some sales into April that normally would have taken place in March, economists say.
Sales of new vehicles and parts, an up-and-down category, fell a sharp 1.6% last month.
Receipts at gas stations declined 5.5% largely because of lower oil prices. It’s a good thing when Americans spend less on gas, however.
Americans are likely to pay more for gas in April, though, after the oil cartel OPEC cut production and prices surged.
Even after setting aside car dealers and gas stations, retail sales were weak. Sales fell in most major categories, including home centers, electronics stores and department stores.
The only segment to stand out: Internet retailers. Sales jumped 1.9%.
One category economists watch closely is bars and restaurants, the only service sector in the retail report. Restaurant receipts rose a tepid 0.1% last month after a 1.6% decline in February.
Restaurant sales tend to rise when the economy is healthy and Americans feel secure in their jobs. Sales slack off during times of economic distress.
Big picture: Retail sales haven’t fallen off a cliff, but they also aren’t rising rapidly like they did in 2021 and early 2022.
How come? High inflation has eaten away at household incomes. Government pandemic stimulus has dried up. And rising interest rates have made purchases of big-ticket items such as cars more expensive.
Americans are still spending plenty to get out and about, however.
Americans have been spending more on services such as travel, hospitality and recreation and less on goods such as consumer electronics and home-office supplies. That’s a big reversal of what happened during the pandemic.
That’s helping to keep the economy afloat. If the economy continues to slow, however, spending on services could also go slack.
Market reaction: Before the retail report, the Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
and S&P 500
SPX,
were set to open mixed in Friday trades.
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